The 11.5% Signal: How Polymarket Predicted Geopolitical Risk Before the Headlines
Hook A single data point: 11.5%. That is the probability assigned by...
People
•
CryptoCobie
•
2026-07-18
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$64,078.7 | +2.17% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$1,841.42 | +1.74% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$74.74 | +1.44% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$570.2 | +2.13% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.09 | +1.32% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0722 | +1.29% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.1647 | +3.98% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$6.55 | +2.15% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$0.8367 | +0.14% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$8.27 | +3.12% |
Fear & Greed
25
Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202622
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trend Tags
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$64,078.7
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,841.42
1
Solana
SOL
$74.74
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$570.2
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.09
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0722
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1647
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.55
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.8367
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.27
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x2467...0ec0
1h ago
In
2,947,150 USDT
🔴
0x73e8...b8e9
6h ago
Out
242,676 USDC
🔵
0x0861...385d
30m ago
Stake
12,981 SOL
💡 Smart Money
0x2f5d...d9cf
Top DeFi Miner
+$1.8M
73%
0x705c...51cc
Top DeFi Miner
+$3.6M
95%
0x101d...27eb
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$5.0M
76%
#Polymarket
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