The 11.5% Signal: How Polymarket Predicted Geopolitical Risk Before the Headlines
Hook A single data point: 11.5%. That is the probability assigned by...
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Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
92 million ARB released
Team and early investor shares released
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Block reward halving event
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Bitcoin Season
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